2015 Formula 1 Racing Thread.

[Bob Holmes]

With the 2014 season open, its officially time to start the 2015 thread.

They are in the middle of the silly season. Lots of politicking, hiring and firing and rumor mongering going on.

And we'll probably still see Mercedes kick everyone's ass in 2015.

I know Tony will be happy that his favorite taxi driver will still be lumbering around the circuits of the world, albeit many positions behind the herd.

So which team will fall the hardest, Ferrari or McLaren? They are both rebuilding. I will enjoy the continued resurgence of Williams, and with Riccardo at the helm, I can enjoy RBR's chase of the silver arrow.

[MikeFleming]

I suspect McLaren will continue to be middle of the pack this season whist adapting to the new Honda engine. Then be a front runner in 2016. If htey get he power and chassis working, their driver selection will produce the results.

Ferrari, I suspect, will continue to be middle of the pack. I just don't see Vttel doing much better at Ferrari than he did at RedBull this past year. Ferrari doesn't have the car to win just now (nor the talent to build a winning car, it appears).

Merc will continue to be the front runner for the coming season, perhaps also into '16. Hopefully with a bit of competition from Williams and, as we get later in the season, McLaren. Hamilton and Rosberg will continue to swap the drivers points lead as they are both very excellent drivers (of course, Lewis is a wee bit better). Fortunately the "Double Points" fiasco (aka crap) will be no more.

I also predict at least one more team will fail financially and drop out completely.

On that same topic: Whatever happened to that new, almost upcoming USA F1 team?

That there's my predictions. ( As always, subject to change by the end of the year. )

[Bob Holmes]

I expect that we'll hear more and more about Haas F1. They're set up as the Ferrari "Jr" team. Sort of like RBR and STR. I'd lay odds that they never make the grid.

The hue and cry about collapsing teams is a bit interesting, Will Buxton did a great blog piece that stated well in excess of 100 teams have come and gone since the beginning of the championship. Its nothing new.

Ecclestone's antics continue to amuse. His ability to control this sport by confusing, dividing and conquering is fascinating.

[MikeFleming]

Ecclestone's antics continue to amuse. His ability to control this sport by confusing, dividing and conquering is fascinating. Who will take over when Bernie dies??

7982

[MikeFleming]

More firings at Ferrari.

http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2014/12/16732.html

Their goal for 2015: At least two wins (as expected, what happens when they don't meet that goal is not mentioned):

http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2014/12/16746.html

[MikeFleming]

2015 FIA Formula One World Championship Race Calendar
01 Australia (Melbourne) 13 - 15 Mar
02 Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur) 27 - 29 Mar
03 China (Shanghai) 10 - 12 Apr
04 Bahrain (Sakhir) 17 - 19 Apr
05 Korea (TBA) * 01 - 03 May
06 Spain (Catalunya) 08 - 10 May
07 Monaco (Monte Carlo) 22 - 24 May
08 Canada (Montréal) 05 - 07 Jun
09 Austria (Spielberg) 19 - 21 Jun
10 Great Britain (Silverstone) 03 - 05 Jul
11 Germany (TBA) 17 - 19 Jul
12 Hungary (Budapest) 24 - 26 Jul
13 Belgium (Spa-Francorchamps) 21 - 23 Aug
14 Italy (Monza) 04 - 06 Sep
15 Singapore (Singapore) 18 - 20 Sep
16 Japan (Suzuka) 25 - 27 Sep
17 Russia (Sochi) 09 - 11 Oct
18 United States (Austin) 23 - 25 Oct
19 Mexico (Mexico City) 30 Oct - 01 Nov
20 Brazil (São Paulo) 13 - 15 Nov
21 Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina) 27 - 29 Nov

[Raven855]

I am not sure of what to make of the coming year yet. The noses of practically all the teams will have to be redone to comply with the regs for 2015. Ferrari is still having wind tunnel issues. The dynamics of the Ferrari duo remains to be seen. How will Alonso and Jenson do? Will Maledono clash in the first practice or the first race? And who will he take out? Will Lotus improve? Will Williams improve enough to be a real threat? Will Mercedes relent and allow engine developement? How soon will RB be caught cheating? How will the Honda engines do? Will we see Brawn at Ferrari? How will the tires affect the new cars?

I look forward to the season because it will answer some questions for me. Bob and I have always had a differing view of Jenson Button. Now we will see how he does with a really good driver beside him.

[MikeFleming]

75 days.

[Bob Holmes]

Ferrari is already managing expectations. Blaming the former crew for a crappy 2015 car. Pathetic.

[Cellos88SVO]

Ferrari is already managing expectations. Blaming the former crew for a crappy 2015 car. Pathetic.

Eh, cars begin development in the spring of the previous season and therefore a lot of work has been done well before any of the firings. The public blaming is in poor taste but there isn't much else they can do to fend off the Italian press and the tifosi.

[Jack Hidley]

Mercedes will win. Ferrari will do worse than they did last year as Vettel can't adapt to a car that was designed without his influence. McLaren will do better with the Honda engine as they've had much more time to integrate it into the car. This is the same advantage that Mercedes had over many other teams, and I suspect why Hamilton smartly joined them. MM will finish ahead of Haas F1.

[Raven855]

The 2015 testing is just days away. Force India has already had a misstep. They had announced they would be the first to intro their car for the new season and now they have announced it will be reveiled at the second testing. Hope this is not what we are going to be seeing from them in the future but I think it might be. I agree with Jack in that Mercedes will win. It will be closer as Red Bull will be make improvements to their engine, software, battery system and chassis. They also cheat. But as always it will be later in the season before anyone figures out how. The challenge for McLaren is engine developement. Under current rules they are locked in with no improvements. The rest of the field can make improvements. I see this rule changing soon and they have good drivers. I expect them to be better than Ferrari, but we shall see. Lotus will improve with a new engine and a new chassis. They still have Maladono, go directly to jail, do not get $200. Ferrari will leak that they have wind tunnel problems when Williams and Torro Rosso both do better than them. Ferrari will be put up for sale, bought by Ford and turned into small Russian economy cars.

[MikeFleming]

Ferrari will be put up for sale, bought by Ford and turned into small Russian economy cars. With v-12 engines that have a very nice sound to them and seven-speed dual-clutch paddle-shifter thingies.

[Bob Holmes]

With v-12 engines that have a very nice sound to them and seven-speed dual-clutch paddle-shifter thingies.

LOL

[MikeFleming]

2015 Year F1 Contest ten-question prediction list:

1. Which driver will win the altitude record this year?
8047

2. Who will be the first to experience an "incident" with Maldonado?

3. Which driver will Massa blame first for [whatever]?

4. Who will win the first race of the year - Hamilton or Rosberg?

5. What non-Mercedes team will be the first to win a race in 2015?

6. How many races into the season will we get before Ferrari fires another top person? Races to firing the second top person?

7. How many races into the season before Red Bull is sanctioned or punished for having something illegal on their car(s)?

8. Which team will be the first to lose a wheel/tyre due to a faulty pit stop during a race?

9. Which team will make the first 'under 2 second' pit stop (four tyres) during a race?

10. Which team will be the first to have a car run out of fuel during a race?

[Raven855]

2015 Year F1 Contest ten-question prediction list:

1. Which driver will win the altitude record this year?
I am going to wait on this one. I want to see some of the new drivers first

2. Who will be the first to experience an "incident" with Maldonado?
Maldonado. He will crash during testing

3. Which driver will Massa blame first for [whatever]?
I think Massa has matured. But if it comes to that, I say Vettel

4. Who will win the first race of the year - Hamilton or Rosberg?
Hard question. The bigger question for me would be "who else will be on the podium?"

5. What non-Mercedes team will be the first to win a race in 2015?
Red Bull

6. How many races into the season will we get before Ferrari fires another top person? Races to firing the second top person?
Are there any left? I will go 2. The second round will be around race 11 when they hire Brawn.

7. How many races into the season before Red Bull is sanctioned or punished for having something illegal on their car(s)?
There will be no sanctions or anything. Lots of accusations though, but they will be Mercedes closest competitor and Bernie will not want to ruin the show.

8. Which team will be the first to lose a wheel/tyre due to a faulty pit stop during a race?
Based on last year I would say Williams but I think Suzie will have addressed that problem for this year. Don't have a good feeling on this yet.

9. Which team will make the first 'under 2 second' pit stop (four tyres) during a race?
Red Bull

10. Which team will be the first to have a car run out of fuel during a race?
Someone running a Ferrari engine.

[Raven855]

The end of the second day at the second testing has now happened. Red Bull, running race simulation and puttting a ton of laps in, on softs puts in the fastest time. They got some good reliability out of the car today. Ferrari is second fastest and have been right at the top of the time sheets during all of the testing sessions. Their fastest time today was on softs. They are still running their intro aero package and not the Melborn aero package so better times should be possible. Mercedes have had driver problems with Hamilton falling ill yesterday and Nico has a neck nerve issue. But Nico ran this morning and Hamiliton ran this afternoon and have run the 3rd and 4th fastest time on the medium tires. They are only .3 seconds back and were running testing on aero and very high fuel loads. There is lots of anticipation on how fast this car really is. It has ended up being a very interesting day with all the different story lines unfolding.

[MikeFleming]

20 days ...

[Raven855]

2. Who will be the first to experience an "incident" with Maldonado?
Maldonado. He will crash during testing

Maldonado has crashed during testing today! I have one prediction right! Although some of the other predictions just are not going to happen.

[MikeFleming]

Three. Days.
Three. Days.
Three. Days.

[Bob Holmes]

I can't wait.

I'm just bummed that Alonso is out for the first race.

[Raven855]

The first race was interesting. Especially the attrition. The next race should have some nice tidbits also. Will Manor outperform MClaren. The McLaren is over 200HP down compared to the Mercedes. How will the Red bull do? Will ToroRoso outperform them?
Lots of long straits, will the Williams outperform the Ferrari? Especially with Bottas back? How will Sauber do? Will they beat the Lotus? Who else will make the podium?

[MikeFleming]

Anyone here watch the GP2 races? GP2 cars have DRS this year. The bastards!

[MikeFleming]

Recent news:



Formula 1 bosses have agreed to bring back refuelling in 2017 as part of a range of measures aimed at making the sport more exciting.

There will also be higher revving and louder engines and changes aimed at making cars "five to six seconds a lap faster", governing body the FIA said.

For 2016, bosses have approved a plan to allow teams free choice of the four available tyre compounds for each race.

The changes still need to be approved by two further legislative stages.

The changes were agreed on Thursday at a meeting of the F1 strategy group, which comprises FIA president Jean Todt, commercial supremo Bernie Ecclestone and the Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren, Red Bull, Williams and Force India teams. The engine manufacturers were also represented at the meeting.

The FIA statement added that a "comprehensive proposal to ensure the sustainability of the sport has emerged".

This, it said, would be refined by the teams in the coming weeks.
http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/formula1/32751118

[Jack Hidley]

And of course making more changes will reduce costs.....NOT!

[MikeFleming]

Four to six seconds a lap is A LOT of time!!

[Raven855]

Well we have some time till the next race. So the questions of the day are: will Hamilton beat Niko in Canada? How did Niko, who had been struggling the entire Monaco race to keep ahead of Vettel, suddenly find speed and sprint to the end after the restart? Should Hamilton trust his pit wall? Who will replace Kimi and when? What happened to the Williams? Will they recover and do well in Canada? If Jenson continues doing well in the McClaren will they replace him at the end of the year? Will the McClaren find any speed, and reliability, and have both cars in points for Canada? Red Bull should have their pistons fixed, How will they do in Canada? Will Maldonado finish the race?

[MikeFleming]

If *I* was Hamilton, I would STILL BE PISSED about Monaco. There was no reason at all to pull him in for tyres.

Vettel is doing surprisingly well (or rather Ferrari is doing surprisingly well) and Vettel just happens to be part of Ferrari). I suspect Ferrari will continue to improve with Vettel giving feedback. Although ALL of this years improvements so far had zip to do with Vettel.

I'm still on the fence on whether Renault will recover this year. They're too busy playing the Blame Game rather than getting into the business at hand of making good GP engines. RB seems to be in the same game mode. Both RB and Renault will have to get over themselves to move forward.

I think (predict) that McLaren will be on the podium by the end of this year, definitely first qtr next year.

No, he will not finish (for Maldonado).

My predictions for Canada: Hamilton, Rosberg, Vettel (in that order). A story we've seen before.

[MikeFleming]

A well deserved win for Hamilton in Canada followed by a well-earned win for Rosberg in Austria.

Hamilton is such a tease. This will make Rosberg's failure to win the drivers title this year even more brutal.

[Raven855]

Thoughts of the day. Will Ferrari keep Kimi? If they keep him, will Ferrari loose to Williams in the constructors championship? If he will be replaced, who will get the job? Will they replace him soon(before September) to have a better chance at third place in the constructors championship?
What of McLaren? When will they get reliability? Will they ever finish a race? Will they finish in the top 10 again?
Force India will get there B spec car soon. Will they go forward or backward?

[brsvo]

With the size of the field the top ten is close to just finishing these days.

[MikeFleming]

My predictions for Silverstone Sunday July 05:

- Finishing order: Hamilton, Vettel, Rosberg; Additional Top 10 finishers: Massa, Hulkenberg

- Maldanado takes out Grosjean by lap 5; and McLaren scores a point.

I'm going with that.

[Raven855]

My predictions for Silverstone Sunday July 05:

- Finishing order: Hamilton, Vettel, Rosberg; Additional Top 10 finishers: Massa, Hulkenberg

- Maldanado takes out Grosjean by lap 5; and McLaren scores a point.

I'm going with that.

Amazing prediction! And a good race! Williams weakness is the pit wall or they may have won some races by now. Picking Maldonado to crash is nothing new, but taking out Grosjean was spot on. Lotus is having a miserable year. The new Force India did very well. Their first race showed the promise of speed, handling, and reliability that puts the McLaren effort to shame. Heads should roll at McLaren. The start revealed a Mercedes weakness, the start. Well done Mike!

[MikeFleming]

Was definitely a very good race! Both Williams cars did a fantastic start and held the lead until the first set of stops. Made Sir Frank proud. Some Merc competition (at last!).

Lewis was lucky (and GOOD!) with his timing to switch to inters. A card well played. On the flip side, Kimi's timing was bad. Same idea, poor execution (good luck/bad luck).


Heads should roll at McLaren. That seems to be the only solution at Ferrari (and taking credit for the progress made by ones predecessors). I seriously doubt that McLaren will follow that path. It's not their style. McLaren will work their way through this.

On a good note there were no McLaren engine (power plant?) failures this weekend. Progress!!

[MikeFleming]

Translated from https://www.facebook.com/JBianchi.OfficialFanPage

A Statement from the Bianchi Family
Nice, France
Saturday 18 July 2015
02.45hrs France │ 01.45hrs UK

It is with great sadness that Jules Bianchi's parents, Philip and Christine, his brother Tom and his
Melanie sister, wish to announce the death of Jules occurred last night at University Hospital
Nice, France, where he had been admitted following his crash at the Suzuka circuit, at the Japaneze Grand Prix October 5, 2014.

"Jules fought to the end, as he has always done, but yesterday his battle ended," said the
Bianchi family. "We feel, she says, a sentence immense and indescribable. We want to thank
the medical staff at Nice University Hospital, who treated him with love and dedication.

"We also want to thank the staff of Mie General Medical Centre in Japan who took
Jules care immediately after the accident, as well as all other physicians who
involved in the fighting that has led over the past months.

"We also wish to thank the colleagues of Jules, his friends, his supporters and all those who he
have demonstrated their affection during this period. They gave us the strength to resist
in these terrible times. The listening, reading their numerous messages showed us how
Jules had aroused such deep affection with so many people around the world.
"We ask that you respect our privacy during this very difficult time, during which
we try to face the loss of Jules."

/*************/

Big Sigh.

FYI: The most recent previous death of a Formula1 driver was Ayrton Senna, who passed away on May 01, 1994 at San Marino Grand Prix in Imola, Italy.

[Raven855]

Japan race is this weekend. After the last race , I'm not quite sure what to think. Hamilton retired, but if he hadn't what would the outcome have been? Will he run away from the pack? Will Rosberg win another race? Why wasn't he competitive? Did Vettel really have alot of reserve and simply kept the race close for the sake of strategy? How did Red Bull improve so much? If Red Bull quits what will happen to Toro Rosso? What has happened to Williams? What happened to the upgrades for McClaren and why have they not improved? Will Button still be driving next year?(probably) Haas is shaping up to be the junior team for Ferrari. Who is going to be driving for them? What will happen to Lotus? Will they get it together and even race this weekend? Will they finish the season? Will they be bought by Reault? Will Grosjean jump ship and go drive for Haas?

[Bob Holmes]

I think the season got a lot more interesting.

[Bob Holmes]

Bummer. Back to the regularly scheduled program.

[MikeFleming]

Not sure what happened in Singapore, but today was another well-deserved win for Lewis.

And another very good showing for the red.

[Raven855]

That first corner move by Hamilton on Niko was something! Wish Niko had given Hamilton more of a challenge in the race though. I'm beginning to doubt your predictions of Honda though Mike. Don't think they are going to happen.

[Bob Holmes]

You mean the Honda GP2 engine, Tony?

[Raven855]

I'm afraid that GP2 engine has more HP. It's only about 150hp less than the current F1 engine. In all fairness McLaren has improved. At the start of the season they may have been down as much as 300HP down by some estimates. Now only 200HP. They really are hurting with the ERS portion of their system though. I bet they could pick up some programming help from VW. They seem to know how to use the system to their advantage.

[MikeFleming]

Wow - a very exciting race in Austin, weather included.

And another win and Championship for Lewis.

Rosberg did NOT look pleased at all.

[Bob Holmes]

Great race.

Rosberg gave away a probable win.

[MikeFleming]

Great race.

Rosberg gave away a probable win. He makes more errors under pressure, it seems. He was more dominant/assertive last year. Then again, he's being measured against Hamilton and Vettel. And it's a very steep climb.

[Raven855]

He makes more errors under pressure, it seems. He was more dominant/assertive last year. Then again, he's being measured against Hamilton and Vettel. And it's a very steep climb.

Last year he didn't have a kid. That has a way of putting everyday life in a different perspective.

At this point, Mercedes has wrapped up the constructors championship and Lewis the Drivers. That first corner on the next race should be interesting. There is nothing to loose for Nico and I'm thinking he will be pretty aggressive from here on out.

[MikeFleming]

There is nothing to loose for Nico and I'm thinking he will be pretty aggressive from here on out. Concurrently, Lewis has nothing to lose either.

Interesting it will be. And at 7000+ feet!

[brsvo]

I wonder if it was team orders to let Hamilton by. Was the best race in years though.

[Raven855]

I wonder if it was team orders to let Hamilton by. Was the best race in years though.
Don't think so. That would make Niko a good actor as well as a good driver.

Any predictions for Honda this weekend? They used 11 tokens for what Alonso said was an improvement of 1/10th of a second and they had reliability problems. I was surprised at how close Alonso and Jenson were and how high up they were. Hope Jensen gets the upgrades for the next race and they finish in the top 5. Bet RedBull makes a case for the Honda engine if they do.

[MikeFleming]

We have seen a nice improvement in McLaren/Honda finishes over the past 3 races. Finally.

Red Bull is out of options at this point. And, imho, it's all because they were so public about bashing Renault (Yep, the same engine company that brought them 4 World Championships).

[Raven855]

Red Bull is out of options at this point. And, imho, it's all because they were so public about bashing Renault (Yep, the same engine company that brought them 4 World Championships).

They claim that they thought they had a deal for Mercedes Engines. Even if they did, they should have taken the high road and not have bashed them. Marko had set a deadline of October 31 for deciding the fate of RB, so we shall see soon enough!

[Bob Holmes]

Recent media reports make it sound like Mercedes lead them down the "primrose path".

[MikeFleming]

My predictions for tomorrow's Mexico F1:

Rosberg, Hamilton, Vettel.

I suspect Hamilton will get, and obey, team orders to bring Rosberg home in front of him for tomorrow and the remaining races of the season. Mercedes wants 1 & 2 in the Drivers Championship too - greedy bastards that they are. But we will never hear about those team orders, I suspect.

On another note it will most likely be a very wet race and only the best wet drivers will not crash out. So Vettel may have a fighting chance after all. IMHO.

[MikeFleming]

Well, I totally missed it on Vettel.

I guess Maurizio is gonna be fired soon??

[Bob Holmes]

LOL

[Raven855]

Mike, any predictions for Brazil? Hamiltons' sick and has never won there. His closest was second last year, with Niko being first. Renault will have an upgrades. Vettel will try to make amends for the last race. Kimi needs a really good showing. It's home track for Massa. Alonso is getting really tired of not being in the top ten. Should be a race with lots of emotion by the drivers. Accidents may happen. Mercedes 1, Vettel 2, Kimi 3, Massa 5. Button 9, Force India with 2 in top ten.

[MikeFleming]

My thinking is that Rosberg still needs another win to be firmly second in the Drivers Championship. So I'm predicting Rosberg, Hamilton, and Vettel - again.

[Bob Holmes]

Hard to argue with Mike's prediction.

[MikeFleming]

Fascinating qualifying sessions.

Like the masterful skilled technical driver Lewis is, he managed to fool everyone by coming in just fractions of a second behind Nico, his teammate, as planned. All y'alls just think about that for a millisecond or so.

My condolences to F-Alonzo (McLaren/Honda?). Two engines - two days. Probably get a sixty-spot grid penalty for that.

I'm sticking with my previous predictions: Nico, Lewis, Sebass.

[Raven855]

I'm not sure what has happened to Williams this year. They sure haven't done much. The Renault upgrades look to be a bust. The Honda upgrades have made Alonso not only slower but more unreliable and I thought that would be a hard thing to do. Sure fooled me. Maldonaldo does not look like much of a team leader for Lotus. I think Force India has done a good job. After watching qualy I am sticking with my predictions.

[MikeFleming]

I'm going with the following this weekend:

Hamilton
Rosberg
Vettell
Massa
Alonzo

[brsvo]

What happened to Vettell in Q1?

[MikeFleming]

What happened to Vettell in Q1? Confusin answers. Vettel said that the team considered his time [already posted] tp be good enough so he lifted on his last lap. However if his time was good enough, WHY did the team send him out? So the answer is that we don't know.

In any case it's ANOTHER reason for Maurizio Arrivabeneto resign [or be fired]. IMHO.

[Raven855]

The season is done and the one thing that occupies my thoughts is How the heck are McLaren going to get out of the hole they are in. Did they improve? Marginally. They used all of their tokens and that doesn't leave allot of room to make changes over the winter. They keep losing sponsers, they are not reliable, there is no performance, I don't have allot of hope for them.

[MikeFleming]

^
Honda needs to drop out as an engine mfgr and Acura needs to introduce a new powerplant design. The current F1 rules do not allow Honda to fix anything.


Did they improve? Marginally. IMHO they improived significantly. Started the year with slightly less than one car running more than ten laps and now they're within 1 second of the top runners with both cars finishing - while being down 170+HP. THAT's significant.

Are those levels of improvement indicative of the world-class McLaren team that we have seen over the past three decades? No. But it is still significant improvement.

There will be eleven rows of cars next year. Any pre-season estimates on how well Ferrari-powered Team Haas will do compared to McLaren/Acura?